Price forecast # 7: invest in week 16 (from April 19)

Price forecast # 7: invest in week 16 (from April 19)

Also this week we look ahead to what we can expect from the most common investments. With the Manners price forecast you can look for return again. Of course we are also critical of ourselves, so we also look back at last week’s price forecast.

Based on our price forecast from last week, which you can read here, we look back at the investment results. Were our expectations correct? We use that knowledge to look ahead and share our price forecast for the coming week. We look at investments in stocks, options, gold, oil, FOREX and crypto currencies.

Analysis AEX shares week 15

We expected a positive week for the AEX shares last week and this expectation came true. We saw many positive results and the AEX index also closed positively. Germany crypto price prediction is popular.

In addition, there were a number of specific buying advice. We list these again and state the weekly return behind it.

Inpost (INPST): – 1.13%

Akzo Nobel (AKZA) *: + 3.20%

NEPI Rockcastle (NRP): – 2.68%

DSM (DSM): + 0.13%

Intertrust (INTER) *: -0.94%

IMCD (IMCD) *: – 0.77%

Amsterdam Commodities (ACOMO): 0.47%

Ordina (ORDI) *: – 7.50%

Lucas Bols (BOLS): – 1.35%

Post NL (PNL): + 0.68%

Arcadis (ARCAD) *: – 1.14%

Signify NV (LIGHT) *: – 1.47%

Heineken (HEIA): 0.63%

Neways Electronics (NEWAY): + 0.21%

Atrium EUR Real estate (ATRS): – 1.60%

Boskalis (BOKA): – 2.89%

Of course we also do this for the sales advice:

Lavide Holding (LVIDE): – 17.86%

Core laboratories (CLB): 0.00%

It turns out that the technical analyzes on an individual basis were less accurate than on market sentiment as a whole. This is mainly because many investors decided to cash in their profits and thus anticipate the quarterly earnings season. All in all, it was a top week for the AEX.

Many quarterly figures are also planned for the coming week. It is expected that these will again be less good than expected due to the persistent Covid-19 problem. As a result, the dividend yield may also turn out lower than expected.

We must therefore keep an eye on these factors when we look at technical analyzes for the AEX shares for next week.

Price forecast AEX shares week 16

If we analyze the AEX shares for the coming week, we see that the trend analyzes are still largely positive. The other technical analyzes also generally give a positive to neutral picture. Currencyconverters Indonesia Crypto is popular.

Naturally, the necessary publications of quarterly results and dividend announcements are also scheduled for the coming week. This can influence the technical factors. In general, we see neutral to buying advice. We see sales advice for:

Sligro (SLIGR)

Unibail Rodamco Westfield (URW)

Index options analysis week 15

Last week we foresaw a positive week with the exception of FTU1! and IBV1 !. The AEX index recorded a + of 0.48%. All other index options also recorded positive results with the exception of the NKD1 !.

Price forecast index options week 16

So we were right and maybe even too careful with our forecasts. For the coming week, we only see strong buying signals for the trend analyzes. All but one of the other technical analyzes show neutral signals. The exception that proves the rule is the FFTU1 !, which receives a buy signal.

Incidentally, the soap around Gamestop has shown that the influence of small investors can be great. The “Wolf of Wallstreet” made a documentary especially for Discovery Channel about the events we saw around Gamestop a few weeks ago.

Government bond analysis week 15

We foresaw a negative week for the price of Dutch government bonds. This expectation came true. The loss of government bonds with a maturity of 15 years was particularly striking, with a weekly result of – 25.93%.

Price forecast for government bonds in week 16

Also for the coming week, most trend analyzes give a strong sell signal, as do the oscillators. The single neutral exception suggests that we are facing another negative week.

Gold and oil price analysis week 15

We were too cautious with our analysis, which indicated a negative to horizontal price development. Gold prices rose, but that had everything to do with the action of the Turkish central bank, which we will discuss next when we analyze the FOREX.

The same goes for oil prices. Here, too, we anticipated a positive to neutral week, while prices rose without exception.

Expectation of the price of gold and oil in week 16

For the coming week, we only see buy signals for gold prices based on the trend signals. The other technical indicators are alternately neutral to positive. So we expect a positive week for gold prices.

For the coming week zBased on the trend analyzes, we have strong buying signals for oil prices. The other technical analyzes give a mixed signal. We therefore expect neutral to positive price developments for oil everywhere.

FOREX price analysis week 15

For the foreign exchange market, the devil was clearly in the tail end of the week. Turkey caused a sensation by banning the payment of goods and services in crypto coins from April 30. This is due to the fact that interest in crypto coins increased sharply due to the increasing inflation of the Turkish Lira. This weakened the position of cryptocurrencies as a “safe haven” from inflation, causing gold prices to rise unexpectedly.

We anticipated a neutral to slightly negative week. This expectation came true as most of the market performed neutral.

FOREX price forecast week 16

The intervention of the Turkish government does not seem to have the desired effect yet. The trend analysis for the pairing TRL / USD options is still negative and the other technical oscillators are also giving a sell signal. This also applies to the Japanese Yen.

For the rest, the market is giving neutral to positive signals, with which we expect a slightly positive week.

Analysis of crypto coins week 15

As always, we conclude our weekly analyzes with the results of the crypto market. There we saw, in accordance with our expectations, a positive week with price records for the Bitcoin and various other crypto coins. This was mainly driven by the IPO of crypto exchange Coinbase, which is listed on the NASDAQ from this week. We wrote this background article about the relationship between the Coinbase IPO and Bitcoin.

Price forecast crypto coins week 16

Of course, today we also look ahead to the crypto price forecast for the coming week. You can read our extensive crypto analyzes on our sister site WANT.nl.

Want to know more about investing?

The contributions “price expectation” and “behind the price expectation” are made in collaboration with our independent partner stock price expectation.com. They provide the latest news on price expectations and investments every day. In our “money & career” section you can see all our articles on money and work. Finally, you will find the latest updates about Bitcoin and other cryptocurrency on WANT.nl every day.

Market turnaround: Bitcoin in pullback mode as regulatory concerns mount

Bitcoin extended its pullback on Tuesday as buyers continue to take gains from the $40,000 resistance level. The cryptocurrency was trading at around $38,000 at the time of writing and is down about 4% in the past week. Ongoing regulatory concerns in the US and China have kept some bitcoin buyers on the sidelines, with a lower support around $34,000 to $36,000.

“We expect the pullback to mature in one to two weeks near the 50-day moving average around $34K, after which bitcoin is likely to clear $42.6K for a revised upward target near $51K,” Katie Stockton wrote. , director of Fairlead. Strategies, in a Monday newsletter. FTX crypto is well known.

Ether in the lead

Ether, the world’s second largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, has emerged from a two-month consolidation against bitcoin. The ETH/BTC ratio is facing initial resistance near 0.07, and a decisive break above that level could see a further rise towards 0.08.

ETH could find support around $2,300 to $2,400. “If ETH successfully stays above the support, we expect upward momentum from the current move to a proof-of-stake Ethereum 2.0 to aim for a retest of its all-time high (around $4K),” QCP Capital wrote in a Telegram chat .

Some ether bulls are also excited about London’s upcoming hard fork of the Ethereum blockchain, an upgrade expected later this week that is expected to reduce the network’s net issuance of new units of the cryptocurrency. “We are less optimistic about BTC and we think BTC’s upside potential may be limited in the near term,” QCP wrote.

Contango for Bitcoin Futures

“Last week’s short squeeze caused a large contango to open in the futures market, but as bitcoin failed to break out of its reach, the contango has declined in recent days,” Arcane Research wrote in a Tuesday newsletter.

Contango is a term used to describe bullish arbitrage, which occurs when the price of the bitcoin futures is higher than the spot price. Since April, bitcoin’s contango has narrowed as bullish sentiment waned. “The CME contango remains significantly below the unregulated exchanges, suggesting that the institutional investors remain more cautious than the crypto-native traders,” Arcane wrote.

The growing contango could also indicate an accumulation of leveraged long positions, albeit slightly lower over the past week. “Be wary of potential long squeezes if bitcoin fails to find support above $37,000,” Arcane wrote.

Outflows of exchanges

A significant amount of bitcoin has poured out of the exchanges over the past week, which may indicate that investors would rather hold positions than sell. “The exchange’s net change metric charts the monthly rate of coins flowing in (green) or out (red) from all exchanges,” Glassnode wrote in a Monday newsletter. “This week we have seen an extremely large number of coins flow out of exchanges, similar to the peak outflow in November 2020.” Crypto enjin has risen.

Stablecoins in the spotlight

The amount of the stablecoin gemini dollar (GUSD) on exchanges has fallen sharply recently, which could imply a continued rise in the bitcoin price, according to a chart by Mignolet on CryptoQuant. In 2018, when the downward trend of bitcoin price was reversed, GUSD saw the amount fall.

GUSD amount on exchanges vs bitcoin price

Meanwhile, the combined market cap of the two largest stablecoins, USDT and USDC, is approaching $90 billion, while USDC’s market cap has increased sixfold since the beginning of the year, according to Skew, a data provider.

Tether frequency

Daily use of the tether stablecoin on Ethereum has shifted from Asian business hours to European and US market hours a little later in the day, possibly due to China’s recent crackdown on cryptocurrency trading and the migration of USDT users to other Ethereum blockchains. suggests a new report. .

In 2020, most USDT activity on Ethereum occurred between 2:00 AM and 2:00 PM Coordinated Universal Time, while the 6:00 AM to 8:00 AM UTC period was the busiest, according to the report from blockchain analytics firm Coin Metrics. However, in 2021 there has been less use between 2:00 and 6:00 UTC, and more during 15:00 to 20:00 UTC.

Investors can trade crypto 24 hours a day, seven days a week, but local trading hours can be used as a proxy for when traders in a particular region. The trading hours of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, London Stock Exchange and New York Stock Exchange are 1:30 to 8:00 UTC, 8:00 to 16:30 UTC and 14:30 to 21:00 UTC, respectively.